1.1 全球光伏裝機(jī)持續(xù)前行

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署數(shù)據(jù)，截止2020年底，全球累計(jì)光伏裝機(jī)760.4GW。有20個(gè)國(guó)家的新增光伏容量超過(guò)了1GW。其中中 國(guó)、歐盟和美國(guó)分別以48.2GW、19.6GW和19.2GW的規(guī)模位列全球前三。

“光伏+儲(chǔ)能”已成為多國(guó)光伏開(kāi)發(fā)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)配置，搭配儲(chǔ)能將為光伏帶來(lái)長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)的發(fā)展動(dòng)力，預(yù)計(jì)2025年全球光 伏新增裝機(jī)370GW，其中，中國(guó)光伏新增裝機(jī)為127GW。儲(chǔ)能逆變器在光伏并網(wǎng)逆變器的基礎(chǔ)上疊加了儲(chǔ)能電站的 功能，從而使日間產(chǎn)生的富余電量得以存在蓄電池，夜間再通過(guò)電池釋放出來(lái)，解決了光伏發(fā)電不可調(diào)控的弊端。

1.2 十四五期間，預(yù)計(jì)國(guó)內(nèi)光伏年均新增裝機(jī)76-86GW

我國(guó)將2030年非化石能源占比目標(biāo)提升至25%（此前2030年非化石能源占比目標(biāo)為20%）。2019年我國(guó)非化石能源占 比已經(jīng)達(dá)到了15.3%，預(yù)計(jì)2020年可以提升至16%；在此基礎(chǔ)上2030年非化石能源占比目標(biāo)達(dá)到25%，平均每年提升幅 度為0.9pct?？紤]水電、核電的資源儲(chǔ)備、建設(shè)周期及地理限制條件后，我們認(rèn)為2030年的光伏、風(fēng)電累計(jì)裝機(jī)合理區(qū)間應(yīng)該在 1800-2000GW左右，即未來(lái)十年風(fēng)電+光伏年均裝機(jī)規(guī)模達(dá)到130GW-150GW區(qū)間，其中十四五期間的合理年均新增裝 機(jī)規(guī)模為108-124GW，十五五期間的合理年均裝機(jī)規(guī)模為155-178GW。十三五期間這一數(shù)值為55GW左右。

1.3 儲(chǔ)能兩大根本驅(qū)動(dòng)→七種場(chǎng)景

儲(chǔ)能的本質(zhì)驅(qū)動(dòng)來(lái)自于新型電力系統(tǒng)所需靈活性資源及用戶側(cè)的低成本高質(zhì)量用電需求，具體可分為發(fā)電側(cè)、電網(wǎng)側(cè) 和用戶側(cè)共七種場(chǎng)景（互有交叉）。

發(fā)電側(cè)：平抑發(fā)電波動(dòng)，維持電網(wǎng)平衡，以新能源配套儲(chǔ)能為主。

電網(wǎng)側(cè)：以調(diào)峰調(diào)頻等輔助服務(wù)維持電網(wǎng)平衡需求為主，另外還有延緩電網(wǎng)投資需求。

用戶側(cè)：國(guó)內(nèi)以工商業(yè)儲(chǔ)能為主，海外包括戶用儲(chǔ)能和工商業(yè)儲(chǔ)能。

1.4 2025年全球新增裝機(jī)有望達(dá)196GWh

裝機(jī)預(yù)測(cè)：2021年全球新增電化學(xué)儲(chǔ)能裝機(jī)9.69GW，同比增長(zhǎng)100%，2025年當(dāng)年新增可達(dá)74.77GW。

驅(qū)動(dòng)因素：中國(guó)2020年主要由新能源發(fā)電側(cè)、電網(wǎng)側(cè)推動(dòng)，工商業(yè)用戶側(cè)受近期火災(zāi)事故影響短期內(nèi)略有遲滯但長(zhǎng)期 無(wú)虞。美國(guó)的大型項(xiàng)目及用戶側(cè)儲(chǔ)能均已實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)化驅(qū)動(dòng)，2021年有望翻倍以上。歐洲、澳洲、日本、南非、南美等 地的家庭儲(chǔ)能正保持快速增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。

2.1 成立以來(lái)，公司不斷橫向拓展細(xì)分領(lǐng)域、縱向升級(jí)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)

1995年成立以來(lái)，意華通過(guò)內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)、外延并購(gòu)等，從通訊連接器、消費(fèi)電子連機(jī)器，拓展至汽車連接器和光伏支架領(lǐng)域。

2.2 公司的產(chǎn)品，主要包括連接器和光伏支架

意華股份的主要產(chǎn)品為連接器和光伏跟蹤支架；其中，連接器包括通訊連接器、消費(fèi)電子連接器、汽車連接器等，光 伏支架主要產(chǎn)品為結(jié)構(gòu)系統(tǒng)（可旋轉(zhuǎn)支架）。

2.3 光伏跟蹤支架是光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的組成部分之一

光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)包括光伏組件、逆變器、光伏支架等核心設(shè)備及 其他配件。光伏支架作為電站的“骨骼” ，其性能直接影響光 伏電站的發(fā)電效率及投資收益。光伏支架上游為鋁合金，鋼材 以及其他非金屬原材料，中游為光伏支架的設(shè)計(jì)和生產(chǎn)，下游 是光伏支架的運(yùn)用即光伏電站。

2.4 汽車連接器業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)入戰(zhàn)略收獲期，成為業(yè)績(jī)新驅(qū)動(dòng)

公司汽車連接器的前期開(kāi)發(fā)投入逐漸完備，業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始進(jìn)入收獲期。前期公司的汽車連接器業(yè)務(wù)接連虧損，主要是由于 業(yè)務(wù)初期的投入建設(shè)支出較大等。2021年上半年，蘇州遠(yuǎn)野收入0.33億元、同比增長(zhǎng)109.8%，實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤(rùn)72萬(wàn)元、逐漸扭 虧為盈（去年同期虧損600萬(wàn)元)。

產(chǎn)品：公司汽車連接器業(yè)務(wù)覆蓋新能源汽車及ASDS自動(dòng)駕駛板塊，目前的產(chǎn)品包括車載高速連接器HSD系列，BMS新能源連接器、車身 ECU/VCU、汽車玻璃升降連接器等。

客戶：公司已獲得 BYD、吉利、GKN、華為、東風(fēng)、中車、安波福等大客戶逾2億元的項(xiàng)目，正在逐步放量中，且獲得了客戶的良好口碑。未來(lái)汽車連接器業(yè)務(wù)有望持續(xù)受益于下游客戶的訂單放量，規(guī)模效應(yīng)顯著增強(qiáng)。

01 Grasp the opportunity of optical storage certainty  

1.1 Global photovoltaic installations continue to move forward  

According to data from the International Energy Agency, by the end of 2020, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity was 760.4GW.  Twenty countries added more than 1GW of PV capacity.  Among them, China, the European Union and the United States ranked the top three in the world with 48.2GW, 19.6GW and 19.2GW respectively.  

"Photovoltaic + energy storage" has become the standard configuration of photovoltaic development in many countries, and energy storage will bring long-term sustainable development power for photovoltaic. It is expected that 370GW of photovoltaic installed capacity will be added globally in 2025, among which 127GW of photovoltaic installed capacity will be added in China.   Energy storage inverter superimposed the function of energy storage power station on the basis of photovoltaic grid-connected inverter, so that the surplus electricity generated during the day can be stored in the battery, and then released through the battery at night, solving the drawbacks of photovoltaic power generation cannot be regulated.  

1.2 During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is estimated that 76-86GW will be newly installed annually in China  

The country has raised its non-fossil energy share target to 25% by 2030, up from 20% previously.  In 2019, the share of non-fossil energy in China reached 15.3 percent, and is expected to increase to 16 percent in 2020.  On this basis, the proportion of non-fossil energy in 2030 will reach 25%, with an average annual increase of 0.9 PCT.  After considering the resource reserve, construction cycle and geographical constraints of hydropower and nuclear power, we believe that the reasonable range of cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in 2030 should be about 1800-2000GW, that is, the average annual installed capacity of wind power and PV in the next ten years should reach 130GW-150GW.  Among them, the reasonable average annual new installation scale during the 14th Five-Year plan is 108-124GW, and the reasonable average annual installation scale during the 15th five-year plan is 155-178GW.  During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, this value is about 55GW.  

1.3 Two fundamental drives of energy storage → Seven scenarios  

The essential drive of energy storage comes from the flexible resources required by the new power system and the low cost and high quality power demand of the user side, which can be divided into seven scenarios (intersecting each other) of the generation side, the grid side and the user side.  

Generation side: to smooth the fluctuation of power generation, maintain the balance of power grid, and mainly use new energy to support energy storage.  

On the power grid side, auxiliary services such as peak regulation and frequency modulation are mainly used to maintain the balance demand of the power grid, and the demand for delaying the investment of the power grid is also delayed.  

User side: Domestic energy storage is mainly industrial and commercial energy storage, while overseas energy storage includes household energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage.  

1.4 The global installed capacity is expected to reach 196GWh in 2025  

Installed capacity forecast: In 2021, the global installed capacity of new electrochemical energy storage is 9.69GW, with a year-on-year growth of 100%, and in 2025, the new capacity can reach 74.77GW.  

Driving factors: In 2020, China is mainly driven by the new energy power generation side and the power grid side, and the industrial and commercial users are slightly delayed in the short term but safe in the long term due to the impact of recent fire accidents.   Both large projects and user-side energy storage in the U.S. are already market-driven and are expected to more than double in 2021.  Europe, Australia, Japan, South Africa, South America and other places are maintaining a rapid growth of home energy storage.  

Yihua Shares: photovoltaic bracket rookie, automotive connector into the harvest period  

2.1 Since its establishment, the company has continuously expanded and segmented areas horizontally and upgraded product structure vertically  

Since its establishment in 1995, Yihua has expanded from communication connectors, consumer electronics and machines to automotive connectors and photovoltaic supports through endogenous growth and extension acquisition.  

2.2 The company's products mainly include connectors and photovoltaic supports  

The main products of Yihua are connectors and photovoltaic tracking brackets;  Among them, connectors include communication connectors, consumer electronics connectors, automotive connectors, and so on. The main products of optical volt bracket are structural systems (rotatable bracket).  

2.3 Photovoltaic tracking support is one of the components of photovoltaic power generation system  

Photovoltaic power generation system includes photovoltaic module, inverter, photovoltaic support and other core equipment and other accessories.   As the "skeleton" of power station, the performance of photovoltaic scaffold directly affects the power generation efficiency and investment income of photovoltaic power station.   The upstream of the PV bracket is aluminum alloy, steel and other non-metallic raw materials, the middle reaches is the design and production of the PV bracket, and the downstream is the application of the PV bracket, namely the PV power station.  

2.4 Automotive connector business has entered the strategic harvest period and become a new driver of performance  

The company automobile connector early development investment gradually complete, business has begun to enter the harvest period.  The early company's automotive connector business losses, mainly due to the initial investment in the construction of larger spending.   In the first half of 2021, Suzhou Eno's revenue was 33 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.8%, and its net profit was 720,000 yuan, gradually turning a loss into a profit (a loss of 6 million yuan in the same period last year).  

Products: The company's automotive connector business covers new energy vehicles and ASDS autonomous driving plate, the current products include vehicle high-speed connector HSD series, BMS new energy connector, body ECU/VCU, automotive glass lift connector, etc.  

Customers: The company has obtained more than 200 million yuan of projects from BYD, Geely, GKN, Huawei, Dongfeng, CRRC, Ambofu and other big customers, and is gradually increasing the volume, and has won a good reputation from customers.   The future automotive connector business is expected to continue to benefit from the downstream customer order volume, scale effect significantly enhanced.