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2023光伏的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)

返回列表 來(lái)源: 阿爾法工場(chǎng)研究院 發(fā)布日期: 2022.10.25 瀏覽次數(shù):
光伏進(jìn)入前所未有的“競(jìng)合時(shí)代”

產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈同一環(huán)節(jié)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇,相互踩踏事件密集發(fā)生。

近一年半的時(shí)間,供應(yīng)鏈劇烈博弈下,包括晶科、隆基、中環(huán)、天合、阿特斯、東方日升、正泰等等龍頭企業(yè)均砸下幾十億數(shù)百億,狂奔垂直一體化。

有的“主動(dòng)”,有的“被動(dòng)”,但整體而言,一體化成為事實(shí),并深刻影響未來(lái)競(jìng)局。

通常,一體化無(wú)非兩種選擇,一是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制型,一是利益型。所謂風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制型,就是我投資這個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)未必能賺錢(qián),但是它可以規(guī)避我產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

另一種就是利益型,就是我在這個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)就是能做得比別人好,能做到第一,能產(chǎn)生社會(huì)價(jià)值,那我為什么不做?

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稍微長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,“一體化”帶來(lái)的結(jié)果會(huì)如何?

其一,很多企業(yè)從頭到腳一樣粗,不同產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的產(chǎn)能加速膨脹,加速不同環(huán)節(jié)的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩。

其二,每個(gè)企業(yè)在產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈不同環(huán)節(jié)都想爭(zhēng)第一,爭(zhēng)前三,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇。

其三,人人守護(hù)供應(yīng)鏈護(hù)城河,不同環(huán)節(jié)彼此亂戰(zhàn)、彼此踩踏、殘酷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)必然出現(xiàn);其四,隨著競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局的動(dòng)態(tài)變化,“一體化”部分環(huán)節(jié)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力缺失,可能成為一些企業(yè)的負(fù)擔(dān),影響其整體競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

如何看待過(guò)剩下的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)?不久前,隆基股份創(chuàng)始人、總裁李振國(guó)在與復(fù)旦《管理視野》交流時(shí)表示:就上下供應(yīng)鏈來(lái)說(shuō),階段性的挑戰(zhàn)會(huì)有一些,比如去年的玻璃和今年的多晶硅料短缺。

但是從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)說(shuō),凡是人類(lèi)可以制造的東西,短缺的情況一定是階段性出現(xiàn)的,過(guò)剩才會(huì)是常態(tài)化。所以,隆基這么多年一直打造的是過(guò)剩狀態(tài)下的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

“過(guò)剩狀態(tài)下我們?cè)趺瓷姘l(fā)展,這是我們更關(guān)注的事情。但凡人類(lèi)能制造出來(lái)的產(chǎn)品,都是過(guò)剩的,這是恒定的規(guī)律。除非壟斷——明明可以過(guò)剩的,我就不過(guò)剩,我要壟斷。這個(gè)是不符合社會(huì)利益的。”

四,注意,央企國(guó)企不只是電站開(kāi)發(fā)的絕對(duì)主力,央國(guó)企還正在加速進(jìn)入光伏制造環(huán)節(jié),這必然加大制造端爭(zhēng)奪的激烈程度。同時(shí),越來(lái)越多跨界者進(jìn)入光伏領(lǐng)域,沖擊固有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局。

我們?cè)诖饲暗膬?nèi)容中分析過(guò),央企和地方國(guó)資在電站開(kāi)發(fā)領(lǐng)域可謂突飛猛進(jìn),并在這一環(huán)節(jié)占據(jù)了絕對(duì)主力的位置。但現(xiàn)在需要進(jìn)一步注意的是,國(guó)資在光伏制造領(lǐng)域的加速布局,這必然沖擊制造環(huán)節(jié)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局。

最近的消息是,11月26日,華能集團(tuán)廣西分公司與中南光電簽訂合作協(xié)議,擬投光伏組件、逆變器、鋁邊框、支架等智能化生產(chǎn)線,打造新能源光伏發(fā)電裝備智能科技產(chǎn)業(yè)園。

11月21日,華能江蘇能源開(kāi)發(fā)有限公司擬聯(lián)合企業(yè)共投10GW高效光伏電池+10GW高效組件。

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就設(shè)備保供,除了自投或入股模式外,央國(guó)企與光伏制造企業(yè)“抱團(tuán)”正呈井噴之勢(shì)。

據(jù)北極星太陽(yáng)能光伏網(wǎng)的統(tǒng)計(jì),僅2021年,隆基、天合、晶澳、晶科、陽(yáng)光電源、華為等18家制造企業(yè)與央國(guó)企簽訂戰(zhàn)略合作,合作內(nèi)容涵蓋設(shè)備供應(yīng)、光伏項(xiàng)目合作開(kāi)發(fā)等。

此外,過(guò)去一年半的時(shí)間,一些與光伏“八竿子打不著”的企業(yè),開(kāi)始跨界光伏。

甚至,這些“跨界”者中,甚至出現(xiàn)了吉利集團(tuán)等整車(chē)制造企業(yè)。根據(jù)能源一號(hào)的最新統(tǒng)計(jì),今年以來(lái)總計(jì)有73家的外部行業(yè)公司正大踏步地進(jìn)入光伏新能源板塊。

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根據(jù)能源一號(hào)的梳理分析:大量公司扎堆跨界進(jìn)入了分布式產(chǎn)業(yè)中。其中有一些著名的上市公司及集團(tuán)企業(yè)如建發(fā)股份、龍?jiān)ㄔO(shè)、京東、順豐控股、中材國(guó)際等等。

五.光伏十四五爭(zhēng)什么?除了國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的拓展與競(jìng)爭(zhēng),國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)重點(diǎn)爭(zhēng)“整縣推進(jìn)”引領(lǐng)下的分布式空間;爭(zhēng)奪“大基地”規(guī)劃引領(lǐng)下的大型地面電站。面對(duì)新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),企業(yè)準(zhǔn)備好了嗎?

從投資主體看,“整縣推進(jìn)”引領(lǐng)下的分布式和“大基地”規(guī)劃引領(lǐng)下的大型地面電站的投資者,都是以央企國(guó)企為主力。

對(duì)于民營(yíng)企業(yè)為主的制造企業(yè)而言,以什么樣的產(chǎn)品和解決方案獲得獲得中標(biāo),如何與央國(guó)企形成全新的合作關(guān)系,如何發(fā)揮各自?xún)?yōu)勢(shì)形成互補(bǔ)。

更具體,如何以自身產(chǎn)品與解決方案獲取更多的項(xiàng)目標(biāo)的?這對(duì)各路光伏企業(yè)而言,


Photovoltaic has entered an unprecedented "era of competition and cooperation"  

 

Competition at the same link in the industrial chain has intensified, and stampedes have occurred in large numbers.  

 

In the past one and a half years, leading enterprises such as Jinkoko, Longji, Zhonghuan, TRW, Solar, Dongfang Risheng, Chint and so on have invested billions of dollars and rushed toward vertical integration under the intense game of supply chain.  

 

Some are "active", some are "passive", but as a whole, integration becomes a reality and profoundly affects the future of the competition.  

 

Generally, there are no more than two options for integration, one is risk control, the other is benefit.  The so-called risk control type is that I invest in this link may not be able to make money, but it can avoid the risk of my industrial chain.  

 

The other is the benefit type, that is, I can do better than others in this link, can be the first, can generate social value, so why don't I do it?  

 

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In the slightly longer term, what are the results of "integration"?  

 

First, many enterprises are as thick from head to toe, accelerating the expansion of capacity in different industrial chains and accelerating overcapacity in different links.  

 

Second, every enterprise in different links of the industrial chain wants to fight for the first place, fight for the top three, competition intensifies.  

 

Third, everyone protects the moat of the supply chain, and different links fight with each other, tread on each other, and cruel competition is bound to emerge.   Fourthly, with the dynamic change of competition pattern, the lack of competitiveness of some links of "integration" may become a burden for some enterprises and affect their overall competitiveness.  

 

How to view the competition under surplus?  Not long ago, Li Zhenguo, the founder and president of Longji Shares, said in an exchange with Fudan's "Management Vision" : in terms of the upper and lower supply chain, there will be some challenges in stages, such as last year's glass and this year's polysilicon material shortage.  

 

But in the long run, whatever human beings can produce, the shortage situation must appear in stages, the surplus will be normal.  Therefore, what Longi has been building for so many years is the competitiveness in the surplus state.  

 

"How do we survive in surplus? That's what we're more focused on.  As long as human beings can produce products, are surplus, this is a constant law.  Unless monopoly - clearly can surplus, I will not surplus, I want to monopolize.  This is not in the interest of society."  

 

Four, note that central state-owned enterprises are not only the absolute force of power station development, central enterprises are also accelerating into the photovoltaic manufacturing link, which will inevitably increase the intensity of competition in the manufacturing end.   At the same time, more and more crossovers enter the photovoltaic field, impacting the inherent competition pattern.  

 

As we have analyzed in the previous content, central enterprises and local state assets have made rapid progress in the field of power plant development, and occupy the absolute main position in this link.   But now we need to pay further attention to the accelerated layout of state assets in the field of photovoltaic manufacturing, which is bound to impact the competitive pattern of manufacturing links.  

 

The latest news is that on November 26, Guangxi Branch of Huaneng Group signed a cooperation agreement with Zhongnan Optoelectronics to invest in intelligent production lines such as photovoltaic modules, inverters, aluminum frames and brackets, and to build an intelligent technology industrial park of new energy photovoltaic power generation equipment.  

 

On November 21, Huaneng Jiangsu Energy Development Co., Ltd. planned to invest a total of 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic cells +10GW high-efficiency modules.  

 

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On the equipment supply, in addition to self-investment or investment mode, central state-owned enterprises and photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises "group" is a blowout.  

 

According to the statistics of Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, only in 2021, 18 manufacturing enterprises such as Longji, Trina, JA, Jinko, Sun Power and Huawei signed strategic cooperation with central state-owned enterprises, covering equipment supply, photovoltaic project cooperation and development.  

 

In addition, over the past year and a half, some companies that have nothing to do with PV have started to cross over into PV.  

 

Even, these "crossover", even appeared Geely Group and other vehicle manufacturing enterprises. According to the latest statistics of Energy One, a total of 73 external industry companies are stepping into the photovoltaic new energy sector this year.  

 

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According to Energy One's analysis, a large number of companies have crossed over into the distributed industry.  There are some famous listed companies and group enterprises such as C&D, Longyuan Construction, Jingdong, SF Holding, Sinoma International and so on.  

 

Five. Photovoltaic 14 or 15 for what?  In addition to the expansion and competition of the international market, the domestic market focuses on the distributed space led by the "promotion of the whole county";  The competition for large ground power stations led by the "big base" plan.  Are companies ready for the new competition?  

 

From the perspective of investment subjects, the investors of large-scale ground power stations under the guidance of the "whole county promotion" and the "large base" planning are all state-owned enterprises as the main force.  

 

For manufacturing enterprises mainly owned by private enterprises, what kind of products and solutions to win the bidding, how to form a new cooperative relationship with central state-owned enterprises, and how to play their respective advantages to complement each other.  

 

More specifically, how to obtain more project targets with your own products and solutions?  For PV companies, 

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