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光伏技術(shù)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與趨勢

返回列表 來源: 陽光工匠 發(fā)布日期: 2022.06.30 瀏覽次數(shù):
近年來,在技術(shù)進(jìn)步的推動下,我國光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)取得快速發(fā)展,產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模和技術(shù)水平均達(dá)到世界領(lǐng)先水平。放眼“十四五”時期,精心謀劃、提前布局,加強光伏技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,是提升核心源動力,推動光伏發(fā)電高質(zhì)量、低成本、大規(guī)模發(fā)展的重要保障。

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光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與趨勢

(一)世界光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀

大力發(fā)展可再生能源已成為全球能源革命和應(yīng)對氣候變化的主導(dǎo)方向和一致行動。近年來,光伏發(fā)電作為重要的可再生能源發(fā)電技術(shù)取得了快速發(fā)展,在很多國家已成為清潔、低碳并具有價格競爭力的能源形式。2020年全球新增光伏發(fā)電裝機1.27億千瓦,累計裝機規(guī)模達(dá)到7.07億千瓦。

晶體硅電池仍是光伏電池產(chǎn)業(yè)化主流技術(shù),新型電池發(fā)展迅速。光伏電池作為光伏行業(yè)的核心部件,根據(jù)工藝和原材料不同主要可分為晶體硅電池、薄膜電池、鈣鈦礦電池、有機電池等。其中,晶體硅電池由于其轉(zhuǎn)換效率高、原材料來源豐富、無毒無害等優(yōu)點,占據(jù)了光伏電池規(guī)模化生產(chǎn)與應(yīng)用的主體。

近年來,PERC(發(fā)射極鈍化和背面接觸)技術(shù)的廣泛應(yīng)用,進(jìn)一步推動晶體硅電池轉(zhuǎn)換效率的提高。另一方面,以鈣鈦礦電池為代表的新型電池成為世界范圍內(nèi)的研究熱點,轉(zhuǎn)換效率快速提升,實驗室最高轉(zhuǎn)換效率已接近晶體硅電池,產(chǎn)業(yè)化進(jìn)程逐步推進(jìn),但其在大面積應(yīng)用、器件穩(wěn)定性等方面仍面臨挑戰(zhàn)。

光伏系統(tǒng)精細(xì)化水平不斷提升,應(yīng)用模式多樣化。光伏系統(tǒng)子陣容量不斷增大,1500伏光伏系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用比例已經(jīng)逐步超過1000伏系統(tǒng),并網(wǎng)安全性、可靠性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不斷提高,光伏電站發(fā)電能力與電能質(zhì)量不斷提升?!肮夥?農(nóng)業(yè)”“光伏+畜牧業(yè)”“光伏+建筑”“光伏+漁業(yè)”等復(fù)合應(yīng)用形式規(guī)模不斷擴大,微電網(wǎng)、智能電網(wǎng)等光伏發(fā)電與電網(wǎng)的深入融合逐步成為電力行業(yè)新業(yè)態(tài)。

(二)世界光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展趨勢

世界各國持續(xù)深化布局光伏發(fā)電全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈創(chuàng)新,作為推進(jìn)新興產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主要戰(zhàn)略舉措,通過全覆蓋布局先進(jìn)材料、制造和系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用各環(huán)節(jié)研發(fā)實現(xiàn)成本降低與競爭力提升。

光伏核心器件朝高效率、低能耗、低成本方向發(fā)展。晶體硅電池已構(gòu)建了完備的全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,將繼續(xù)占據(jù)光伏電池生產(chǎn)量的主要份額,未來將進(jìn)一步向著更高的轉(zhuǎn)換效率、更少的原材料消耗、更低的能源消耗、更低的制造成本的方向發(fā)展。鈣鈦礦電池、疊層電池作為未來光伏電池技術(shù)重要的發(fā)展方向,世界各國均在此方面重點投入,著力提升器件性能與穩(wěn)定性,推動產(chǎn)業(yè)化布局,在解決大面積、穩(wěn)定性等方面的問題后,鈣鈦礦電池將有望改變光伏應(yīng)用市場的產(chǎn)業(yè)格局。

光伏應(yīng)用向多利用場景方向發(fā)展。世界各國結(jié)合自身實際情況,積極推動光伏建筑一體化、漂浮式光伏、光伏+農(nóng)業(yè)、光伏車棚等多種新型應(yīng)用形式發(fā)展,與之相關(guān)的特異性產(chǎn)品技術(shù)、聯(lián)合運行控制技術(shù)等成為研究重點。

(三)我國光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)現(xiàn)狀

“十三五”期間,在產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)??焖贁U大的帶動下,我國光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)取得快速發(fā)展,光伏電池、組件等關(guān)鍵部件產(chǎn)業(yè)化量產(chǎn)技術(shù)達(dá)到世界領(lǐng)先水平;生產(chǎn)設(shè)備技術(shù)不斷升級,基本實現(xiàn)國產(chǎn)化;光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)成套技術(shù)不斷優(yōu)化完善,智能化水平顯著提升。

光伏電池組件技術(shù)快速迭代,產(chǎn)業(yè)化制造水平世界領(lǐng)先。到“十三五”末,我國光伏電池制造環(huán)節(jié)基本實現(xiàn)了從傳統(tǒng)“多晶鋁背場”技術(shù)到“單晶PERC”技術(shù)的更新?lián)Q代,主流規(guī)模化量產(chǎn)晶體硅電池平均轉(zhuǎn)換效率從“十三五”初期的18.5%提升至22.8%,實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展。

TOPCon(隧穿氧化層鈍化接觸)、HJT(異質(zhì)結(jié))、IBC(背電極接觸)等新型晶體硅高效電池與組件技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)化水平不斷提高,頭部企業(yè)多次刷新產(chǎn)業(yè)化生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換效率世界紀(jì)錄,已具備規(guī)?;a(chǎn)能力與較強的國際競爭力。鈣鈦礦等新一代高效電池技術(shù)保持與世界齊頭并進(jìn),研究機構(gòu)多次創(chuàng)造鈣鈦礦電池實驗室轉(zhuǎn)換效率世界紀(jì)錄,部分企業(yè)已開展產(chǎn)業(yè)化生產(chǎn)研究,并多次刷新產(chǎn)業(yè)化生產(chǎn)組件轉(zhuǎn)換效率紀(jì)錄。

光伏發(fā)電制造設(shè)備水平明顯提升,基本實現(xiàn)國產(chǎn)化。我國光伏設(shè)備實現(xiàn)了從低端向高端發(fā)展,產(chǎn)品定制化程度不斷提高,高產(chǎn)能與高效自動化能力不斷提升,自動化、數(shù)字化、網(wǎng)絡(luò)化程度的提升推動光伏制造向光伏智造轉(zhuǎn)變。多晶硅硅片、電池片、組件各環(huán)節(jié)生產(chǎn)裝備已基本實現(xiàn)國產(chǎn)化。

光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)技術(shù)不斷優(yōu)化,智能化運維助力發(fā)電能力提升。大量新技術(shù)被應(yīng)用于光伏電站整體設(shè)計以及系統(tǒng)級優(yōu)化。光伏支架跟蹤系統(tǒng)、1500伏電壓的采用有效提高了光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的實際發(fā)電能力;智能機器人、無人機、大數(shù)據(jù)、遠(yuǎn)程監(jiān)控、先進(jìn)通信技術(shù)等已在電站運行中使用。

(四)我國光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展趨勢

作為全球最大的光伏發(fā)電應(yīng)用市場,我國已成為各類新型光伏電池技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)化轉(zhuǎn)化與應(yīng)用的孵化地。未來我國將繼續(xù)聚焦國際光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展重點方向,引領(lǐng)全球光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)化技術(shù)持續(xù)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展。

光伏電池效率進(jìn)一步提升。晶體硅電池仍將在一段時間內(nèi)保持主導(dǎo)地位,并以PERC技術(shù)為主。采用TOPCon或HJT技術(shù)的N型晶體硅電池在綜合考慮效率、成本、規(guī)模,具備較好市場競爭力后,有望成為下一個主流光伏電池技術(shù)。鈣鈦礦電池等基于新材料體系的高效光伏電池以及疊層電池作為研究熱點,待產(chǎn)業(yè)化技術(shù)逐步成熟后有望帶來下一個光伏電池轉(zhuǎn)換效率的階躍式提升。

光伏組件高效率與高可靠性并進(jìn)。半片技術(shù)、疊瓦技術(shù)、多主柵等組件技術(shù)將進(jìn)一步廣泛應(yīng)用,雙面組件將逐步成為市場主流,提升組件效率與發(fā)電能力。新型封裝技術(shù)與封裝材料進(jìn)一步提升組件可靠性。

光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)智能化、多元化發(fā)展。逆變器將向大功率單體機、高電壓接入、智能化方向發(fā)展,不斷深化與 儲能技術(shù)的融合,智能運行與維護(hù)技術(shù)水平不斷提高。光伏建筑一體化等新場景應(yīng)用技術(shù)不斷完善,拓展應(yīng)用光伏發(fā)電開發(fā)空間。

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“十四五”光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展方向及發(fā)展目標(biāo)

據(jù)預(yù)測,為實現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰、碳中和目標(biāo),到2030年,我國光伏發(fā)電裝機需要達(dá)到9~10億千瓦;到2060年,則需要達(dá)到30~35億千瓦。光伏發(fā)電在迎來空前發(fā)展機遇與發(fā)展空間的同時,也面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn),光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)創(chuàng)新將成為應(yīng)對這些挑戰(zhàn)的關(guān)鍵因素。

加強技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,提高土地綜合利用價值,促進(jìn)光伏大規(guī)模發(fā)展。據(jù)測算,我國太陽能可開發(fā)潛力可達(dá)千億千瓦量級,但考慮生態(tài)紅線與基本農(nóng)田因素,約44%的國土面積不能用作光伏等新能源項目開發(fā),國家林業(yè)和草原局等部門對新能源開發(fā)要求日趨規(guī)范。在新形勢下,迫切需要進(jìn)一步提高光伏發(fā)電單位面積發(fā)電能力,減少光伏發(fā)電項目建設(shè)用地需求,同時加強土地綜合利用,提高土地利用效率。

一方面,通過新材料、新技術(shù)的應(yīng)用,提高光伏電池組件轉(zhuǎn)換效率,提升光伏組件單位面積的發(fā)電能力;另一方面,不斷優(yōu)化光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)設(shè)計與建設(shè)水平,開展應(yīng)用模式創(chuàng)新,加強光伏電站全生命周期的智能化管理和運維,提高光伏電站的發(fā)電效率。

光伏發(fā)電并網(wǎng)性能進(jìn)一步提升,滿足高滲透率應(yīng)用要求。隨著光伏發(fā)電在電網(wǎng)中滲透率的不斷提高,電力系統(tǒng)將迎來安全、穩(wěn)定、電能質(zhì)量、經(jīng)濟性等多方面的挑戰(zhàn)。作為構(gòu)建以新能源為主體的新型電力系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,提升光伏發(fā)電功率預(yù)測精度、提高光伏系統(tǒng)主動支撐與抵御電力系統(tǒng)擾動等涉網(wǎng)性能將成為重要研究方向。

分布式光伏與其他領(lǐng)域的融合發(fā)展將成為未來光伏發(fā)電重要的組成部分。在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)規(guī)模化光伏基地建設(shè)的同時,光伏建筑一體化、光伏與交通、新基建設(shè)施融合發(fā)展等新型應(yīng)用形式對光伏產(chǎn)品性能、光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)提出了新的要求,需要結(jié)合特異性場景應(yīng)用條件,持續(xù)推動光伏發(fā)電相關(guān)技術(shù)的發(fā)展。

健全光伏發(fā)電全生命周期綠色產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。伴隨著近年我國光伏發(fā)電裝機規(guī)模的快速增長,生命期滿光伏組件回收問題也日益受到關(guān)注。結(jié)合我國光伏發(fā)電規(guī)模增速,預(yù)計我國將在2040年左右集中迎來光伏組件回收處理的第一個需求高峰期。放眼長遠(yuǎn),在碳達(dá)峰、碳中和目標(biāo)的要求下,亟須完善到期光伏組件的無害化回收處理技術(shù),并推向產(chǎn)業(yè)化,補全光伏發(fā)電全生命周期綠色產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的最后一環(huán)。

強產(chǎn)能保障光伏發(fā)展目標(biāo)落實。2020年,我國光伏組件產(chǎn)能2.443億千瓦,實際產(chǎn)量1.246億千瓦,約六成組件銷往海外,“十四五”期間仍需進(jìn)一步提高光伏產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)能保障。一方面,需要進(jìn)一步發(fā)展光伏電池、組件、逆變器等核心部件的智能化制造技術(shù),提升智能化生產(chǎn)水平,提高生產(chǎn)效率與生產(chǎn)能力;另一方面,需要進(jìn)一步開展技術(shù)攻關(guān),盡快突破少部分關(guān)鍵制造設(shè)備零部件的國產(chǎn)化技術(shù),消除發(fā)展?jié)撛谄款i。

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光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)“十四五”科技發(fā)展展望

綜合對碳達(dá)峰、碳中和形勢下光伏發(fā)電行業(yè)技術(shù)發(fā)展的需求分析,“十四五”期間,我國光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)有望延續(xù)“十三五”快速發(fā)展的勢頭,在國家整體發(fā)展目標(biāo)的指引下,重點針對產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中存在的關(guān)鍵問題開展研究和突破,“補短板、鍛長板”,不斷提升我國光伏發(fā)電行業(yè)技術(shù)水平,助力碳達(dá)峰、碳中和目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)。

(一)發(fā)展高效低成本光伏電池技術(shù)

構(gòu)建高效低成本晶硅電池新業(yè)態(tài),進(jìn)一步提高晶硅電池轉(zhuǎn)換效率,推動高效新技術(shù)廣泛應(yīng)用,提升光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)單位面積發(fā)電能力。一是重點針對TOPCon、HJT、IBC等新型晶體硅電池的低成本高質(zhì)量產(chǎn)業(yè)化制造技術(shù)開展研究,發(fā)展高質(zhì)量產(chǎn)業(yè)化生產(chǎn)關(guān)鍵材料、工藝與裝備制造技術(shù),進(jìn)一步提高電池產(chǎn)業(yè)化生產(chǎn)效率與電池轉(zhuǎn)換效率,降低生產(chǎn)成本,推動高效晶體硅電池規(guī)?;瘧?yīng)用,具體包括低成本高效清洗技術(shù)、高質(zhì)量鈍化技術(shù)、低成本金屬化技術(shù)等方面的研究。二是針對低成本高質(zhì)量硅片的生產(chǎn)制造技術(shù)開展研究。重點突破低成本高效硅顆粒料制備、連續(xù)拉晶、N型與摻鎵P型硅棒制備技術(shù),從產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈源頭加強對規(guī)?;l(fā)展的支撐。同時,發(fā)展大尺寸超薄硅片切割技術(shù),掌握超薄硅片切割工藝,完成配套設(shè)備、相關(guān)主輔材開發(fā)及配套技術(shù)研究,實現(xiàn)大尺寸超薄硅片穩(wěn)定切割和產(chǎn)出,支持低硅成本光伏電池發(fā)展。

(二)加強高效鈣鈦礦電池制備與產(chǎn)業(yè)化生產(chǎn)技術(shù)研究

緊扣世界光伏技術(shù)發(fā)展熱點,開展新型鈣鈦礦電池制備與產(chǎn)業(yè)化生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的集中攻關(guān),推動單結(jié)鈣鈦礦電池的規(guī)?;慨a(chǎn)。同時,開發(fā)高效疊層電池工藝,突破單結(jié)電池效率極限,實現(xiàn)光伏電池轉(zhuǎn)換效率的階躍式提升。一是研究大面積高效率、高穩(wěn)定性環(huán)境友好型鈣鈦礦電池成套制備技術(shù),開發(fā)高可靠性組件級聯(lián)與封裝技術(shù),研制基于溶液法與物理法的量產(chǎn)工藝制程設(shè)備,實現(xiàn)高效單結(jié)鈣鈦礦電池產(chǎn)業(yè)化量產(chǎn)。二是開展晶體硅/鈣鈦礦、鈣鈦礦/鈣鈦礦等高效疊層電池制備技術(shù)研究,優(yōu)化疊層結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計與制備工藝,大幅提高光伏電池發(fā)電效率,逐步實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)化量產(chǎn)能力。

(三)推動光伏發(fā)電并網(wǎng)性能提升

開展新型高效大容量光伏并網(wǎng)技術(shù)研究與示范試驗,突破中壓并網(wǎng)逆變器關(guān)鍵技術(shù),開展弱電網(wǎng)條件下耦合諧振機理及抑制策略、有功備用和儲能單元相結(jié)合的最優(yōu)自適應(yīng)虛擬同步技術(shù)、高功率密度中壓發(fā)電模塊優(yōu)化設(shè)計與系統(tǒng)集成實證測試技術(shù)等研究,研制交流直掛式中壓并網(wǎng)逆變器。突破大型光伏高效穩(wěn)定直流匯集技術(shù)瓶頸,開展大功率高效率直流升壓變換器拓?fù)?、自律控制技術(shù)、多臺直流變換器智能串/并聯(lián)控制以及多場景智能運行控制技術(shù)等研究,研制大功率直流變換器。開展光伏發(fā)電與電力系統(tǒng)間暫穩(wěn)態(tài)特性和仿真等關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究,提升光伏發(fā)電并網(wǎng)性能。

(四)推進(jìn)光伏建筑一體化等分布式技術(shù)應(yīng)用

推動“光伏+”等分布式光伏應(yīng)用技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,拓展分布式光伏應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域,助推光伏發(fā)電高比例發(fā)展。重點開展光伏屋頂、玻璃幕墻等多種形式光伏建筑一體化產(chǎn)品相關(guān)技術(shù)研究,綜合考慮建筑結(jié)構(gòu)、強度、防火、安全性能等因素,滿足規(guī)?;瘧?yīng)用需求。同時開展產(chǎn)品模塊化、輕量化技術(shù)研究,完善相關(guān)技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與規(guī)范,推動光伏建筑一體化以及光伏發(fā)電與其他領(lǐng)域綜合利用的規(guī)?;瘡V泛應(yīng)用。

(五)加強光伏智慧制造與設(shè)備國產(chǎn)化

構(gòu)建智慧光伏生產(chǎn)制造體系,提高生產(chǎn)制造能力,開展關(guān)鍵集中攻關(guān),突破關(guān)鍵設(shè)備與零部件國產(chǎn)化技術(shù),解決潛在的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)瓶頸,保障未來光伏核心產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)。一是提高多晶硅等基礎(chǔ)材料生產(chǎn)、光伏電池及部件制造智能化水平,提升智能光伏終端產(chǎn)品供給能力;二是自主研發(fā)高質(zhì)量異質(zhì)結(jié)電池用核心裝備、突破高質(zhì)量制造設(shè)備用分子泵、真空閥門、電源、真空計等真空設(shè)備標(biāo)準(zhǔn)件、性能檢測設(shè)備等制造技術(shù);三是突破 光伏逆變器用國產(chǎn)功率模塊、控制器芯片、數(shù)字信號處理器等關(guān)鍵零部件規(guī)模化應(yīng)用技術(shù);四是掌握異質(zhì)結(jié)光伏電池用低溫銀漿、濺射靶材等關(guān)鍵材料制造技術(shù)。

(六)發(fā)展光伏組件回收處理與再利用技術(shù)

針對晶硅光伏組件壽命期后大規(guī)模退役問題,開展光伏組件環(huán)保處理和回收的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)及裝備研究與示范試驗,實現(xiàn)主要高價值組成材料的可再利用。針對目前行業(yè)各主流產(chǎn)品類型,開發(fā)基于物理法和化學(xué)法的低成本綠色拆解技術(shù),掌握高價值組分高效環(huán)保分離的技術(shù)與裝備;開發(fā)新型材料及新結(jié)構(gòu)組件的環(huán)保處理技術(shù)和實驗平臺;研究組件低損拆解及高價值組分材料高效分離等關(guān)鍵設(shè)備,實現(xiàn)退役光伏組件中銀、銅等高價值組分的高效回收和再利用。

In recent years, driven by technological progress, China's photovoltaic power generation industry has achieved rapid development, and the industrial scale and technical level have reached the world leading level. During the "fourteenth five year plan" period, careful planning, layout in advance and strengthening photovoltaic technology innovation and industrial upgrading are important guarantees to improve the core source power and promote the high-quality, low-cost and large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation.



one



Development status and trend of photovoltaic power generation technology



(1) Development status of photovoltaic power generation technology in the world



Vigorously developing renewable energy has become the leading direction and concerted action of the global energy revolution and climate change response. In recent years, photovoltaic power generation, as an important renewable energy power generation technology, has achieved rapid development, and has become a clean, low-carbon and price competitive energy form in many countries. In 2020, the global installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will increase by 127million kW, and the cumulative installed capacity will reach 707million kW.



Crystalline silicon cell is still the mainstream technology of photovoltaic cell industrialization, and new cells are developing rapidly. As the core component of the photovoltaic industry, photovoltaic cells can be divided into crystalline silicon cells, thin film cells, perovskite cells, organic cells, etc. according to different processes and raw materials. Among them, crystalline silicon cells occupy the main body of large-scale production and application of photovoltaic cells because of their high conversion efficiency, rich sources of raw materials, non-toxic and harmless advantages.



In recent years, the wide application of perc (emitter passivation and back contact) technology has further promoted the improvement of the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon batteries. On the other hand, the new battery represented by perovskite battery has become a worldwide research hotspot. The conversion efficiency has been rapidly improved. The maximum conversion efficiency in the laboratory has been close to that of crystalline silicon battery. The industrialization process has been gradually promoted, but it still faces challenges in large-scale application and device stability.



The refinement level of photovoltaic system has been continuously improved and the application modes have been diversified. The capacity of photovoltaic system subarray has been continuously increasing, the application proportion of 1500 V photovoltaic system has gradually exceeded that of 1000 V system, the grid connection safety and reliability standards have been continuously improved, and the power generation capacity and power quality of photovoltaic power stations have been continuously improved. The scale of composite application forms such as "photovoltaic + agriculture", "photovoltaic + animal husbandry", "photovoltaic + Architecture" and "photovoltaic + fishery" has been expanding. The in-depth integration of photovoltaic power generation and power grid such as micro grid and smart grid has gradually become a new business type of the power industry.



(2) Development trend of photovoltaic power generation technology in the world



Countries around the world continue to deepen the innovation of the whole industrial chain of photovoltaic power generation. As a major strategic measure to promote the development of emerging industries, they achieve cost reduction and competitiveness improvement through R & D covering all aspects of advanced materials, manufacturing and system application.



Photovoltaic core devices are developing towards high efficiency, low energy consumption and low cost. Crystalline silicon cells have built a complete industrial chain and will continue to occupy the main share of photovoltaic cell production. In the future, they will further develop towards higher conversion efficiency, less raw material consumption, lower energy consumption and lower manufacturing cost. Perovskite cells and laminated cells are the important development direction of photovoltaic cell technology in the future. Countries all over the world focus on this aspect, focus on improving device performance and stability, and promote industrialization layout. After solving the problems of large area and stability, perovskite cells are expected to change the industrial pattern of photovoltaic application market.



Photovoltaic applications are developing towards multiple utilization scenarios. Countries around the world actively promote the development of photovoltaic building integration, floating photovoltaic, photovoltaic + agriculture, photovoltaic shed and other new application forms in combination with their own actual situation. The related specific product technology and joint operation control technology have become the research focus.



(3) Current situation of photovoltaic power generation technology in China



During the "13th five year plan" period, driven by the rapid expansion of industrial scale, China's photovoltaic power generation technology has achieved rapid development, and the industrialized mass production technology of photovoltaic cells, modules and other key components has reached the world leading level; Production equipment and technology have been upgraded continuously, and localization has been basically realized; The complete technology of photovoltaic power generation system has been continuously optimized and improved, and the intelligent level has been significantly improved.



Photovoltaic cell module technology has been rapidly iterated, and the industrialized manufacturing level is world leading. By the end of the 13th five year plan, China's photovoltaic cell manufacturing has basically realized the upgrading from the traditional "polycrystalline aluminum back field" technology to the "single crystal perc" technology. The average conversion efficiency of mainstream mass-produced crystalline silicon cells has increased from 18.5% at the beginning of the 13th five year plan to 22.8%, realizing leapfrog development.



The industrialization level of new crystalline silicon high-efficiency battery and module technologies such as TOPCON (tunneling oxide passivation contact), hjt (heterojunction), IBC (back electrode contact) has been continuously improved. The leading enterprises have repeatedly refreshed the world record of industrialized production conversion efficiency, and have large-scale production capacity and strong international competitiveness. Perovskite and other new generation high-efficiency battery technologies keep pace with the world. Research institutions have repeatedly created world records for the conversion efficiency of perovskite battery laboratories. Some enterprises have carried out research on industrialized production and repeatedly refreshed the conversion efficiency records of industrialized production components.



The level of photovoltaic power generation manufacturing equipment has been significantly improved, and localization has been basically realized. China's photovoltaic equipment has realized the development from low-end to high-end, the degree of product customization has been continuously improved, the ability of high-capacity and efficient automation has been continuously improved, and the degree of automation, digitalization and networking has promoted the transformation from photovoltaic manufacturing to photovoltaic intelligent manufacturing. Production equipment for polysilicon silicon wafer, battery wafer and module has been basically localized.



Photovoltaic power generation system technology has been continuously optimized, and intelligent operation and maintenance has helped improve power generation capacity. A large number of new technologies have been applied to the overall design and system level optimization of photovoltaic power plants. The adoption of PV support tracking system and 1500 V voltage has effectively improved the actual power generation capacity of the PV power generation system; Intelligent robots, UAVs, big data, remote monitoring and advanced communication technologies have been used in the operation of the power station.



(4) Development trend of photovoltaic power generation technology in China



As the largest photovoltaic power generation application market in the world, China has become an incubator for the industrialization and application of various new photovoltaic cell technologies. In the future, China will continue to focus on the key development direction of international photovoltaic power generation technology and lead the sustainable innovation and development of global photovoltaic power generation industrialization technology.



The efficiency of photovoltaic cells was further improved. Crystalline silicon battery will remain dominant for a period of time, and perc technology will be the main technology. The n-type crystalline silicon cell adopting TOPCON or hjt technology is expected to become the next mainstream photovoltaic cell technology after comprehensively considering efficiency, cost and scale and having good market competitiveness. Perovskite cells and other high-efficiency photovoltaic cells based on new material systems as well as laminated cells are research hotspots. After the industrialization technology is gradually mature, it is expected to bring the next step improvement of photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency.



High efficiency and high reliability of photovoltaic modules go hand in hand. Half chip technology, tile stacking technology, multiple main grids and other component technologies will be further widely used. Double sided components will gradually become the mainstream of the market, improving component efficiency and power generation capacity. New packaging technologies and materials further improve the reliability of components.



Photovoltaic power generation system is intelligent and diversified. The inverter will develop towards high-power single machine, high-voltage access and intelligence, continuously deepen the integration with energy storage technology, and continuously improve the level of intelligent operation and maintenance technology. Photovoltaic building integration and other new scene application technologies have been continuously improved, and the development space for photovoltaic power generation has been expanded.



two



Development direction and objectives of photovoltaic power generation technology in the "14th five year plan"



It is predicted that in order to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, China's installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will need to reach 900million to 1billion kW by 2030; By 2060, it will need to reach 3-3.5 billion kilowatts. Photovoltaic power generation faces many challenges while facing unprecedented development opportunities and development space. Photovoltaic power generation technology innovation will become a key factor to deal with these challenges.



Strengthen technological innovation, improve the value of comprehensive land use, and promote the large-scale development of photovoltaic. It is estimated that the exploitable potential of solar energy in China can reach the order of 100 billion kilowatts. However, considering the ecological red line and basic farmland factors, about 44% of the land area can not be used for the development of new energy projects such as photovoltaic. The State Forestry and grassland administration and other departments have increasingly standardized the requirements for the development of new energy. Under the new situation, it is urgent to further improve the power generation capacity per unit area of photovoltaic power generation, reduce the demand for construction land for photovoltaic power generation projects, and strengthen the comprehensive utilization of land to improve the efficiency of land use.



On the one hand, through the application of new materials and new technologies, improve the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cell modules and enhance the power generation capacity per unit area of photovoltaic modules; On the other hand, continuously optimize the design and construction level of photovoltaic power generation system, carry out application mode innovation, strengthen the intelligent management and operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power stations throughout their life cycle, and improve the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic power stations.



The grid connection performance of photovoltaic power generation is further improved to meet the requirements of high permeability applications. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation in the power grid, the power system will meet the challenges of security, stability, power quality, economy and so on. As an important part of building a new power system with new energy as the main body, it will become an important research direction to improve the power prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation, improve the grid related performance of photovoltaic system, such as active support and resistance to power system disturbance.



The integrated development of distributed photovoltaic and other fields will become an important part of photovoltaic power generation in the future. While steadily promoting the construction of large-scale photovoltaic base, new application forms such as photovoltaic building integration, photovoltaic and transportation, and new infrastructure construction and construction have put forward new requirements for photovoltaic product performance and photovoltaic power generation system. It is necessary to continue to promote the development of photovoltaic power generation related technologies in combination with specific scenario application conditions.



Improve the green industry chain of photovoltaic power generation in the whole life cycle. With the rapid growth of the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China in recent years, the recycling of photovoltaic modules at the end of their life has also attracted increasing attention. In combination with the growth of China's photovoltaic power generation scale, it is expected that China will usher in the first peak demand for photovoltaic module recycling around 2040. In the long run, under the requirements of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization goals, it is urgent to improve the harmless recovery and treatment technology of expired photovoltaic modules, promote industrialization, and complete the last link of the green industrial chain in the whole life cycle of photovoltaic power generation.



Strong production capacity ensures the implementation of photovoltaic development goals. In 2020, China's photovoltaic module production capacity will be 244.3 million KW, and the actual output will be 124.6 million KW. About 60% of the modules will be sold overseas. During the "fourteenth five year plan" period, it is still necessary to further improve the capacity guarantee of photovoltaic products. On the one hand, it is necessary to further develop the intelligent manufacturing technology of photovoltaic cells, modules, inverters and other core components to improve the intelligent production level, production efficiency and production capacity; On the other hand, it is necessary to further carry out technical research, break through the localization technology of a small number of key manufacturing equipment parts as soon as possible, and eliminate the potential bottleneck of development.



three



Prospects for the development of photovoltaic power generation technology during the "14th five year plan"



Based on the demand analysis of the technology development of the photovoltaic power generation industry under the situation of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, during the "14th five year plan", China's photovoltaic power generation technology is expected to continue the rapid development momentum of the "13th five year plan". Under the guidance of the overall national development goals, research and breakthroughs will be focused on the key problems existing in the industrial chain, "making up for weaknesses and forging long plates", so as to continuously improve the technical level of China's photovoltaic power generation industry and help carbon peak Realization of carbon neutralization goal.



(1) Developing high efficiency and low cost photovoltaic cell technology



Build a new business form of high-efficiency and low-cost crystalline silicon cells, further improve the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells, promote the wide application of high-efficiency new technologies, and improve the power generation capacity per unit area of photovoltaic power generation system. First, focus on the research on the low-cost and high-quality industrialized manufacturing technology of new crystalline silicon batteries such as TOPCON, hjt and IBC, develop the manufacturing technology of key materials, processes and equipment for high-quality industrialized production, further improve the industrialized production efficiency and battery conversion efficiency, reduce production costs, and promote the large-scale application of high-efficiency crystalline silicon batteries, including low-cost and high-efficiency cleaning technology, high-quality passivation technology Low cost Metallization Technology. The second is to study the manufacturing technology of low-cost and high-quality silicon wafers. Focus on breakthrough in low-cost and efficient silicon particle preparation, continuous crystallization, n-type and gallium doped p-type silicon rod preparation technology, and strengthen the support for large-scale development from the source of the industrial chain. At the same time, develop large-size ultra-thin silicon wafer cutting technology, master ultra-thin silicon wafer cutting process, complete the development of supporting equipment, related main and auxiliary materials and supporting technology research, realize the stable cutting and output of large-size ultra-thin silicon wafer, and support the development of low-cost silicon photovoltaic cells.



(2) Strengthen the research on Preparation and industrialized production technology of high efficiency perovskite battery



Focusing on the development hotspot of photovoltaic technology in the world, we will carry out centralized research on the preparation and industrialized production technology of new perovskite cells, and promote the large-scale production of single junction perovskite cells. At the same time, develop high-efficiency laminated battery process, break through the efficiency limit of single junction cells, and realize the step-by-step improvement of photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency. The first is to study the complete preparation technology of large-area high-efficiency, high stability and environment-friendly perovskite batteries, develop high reliability component cascade and packaging technology, and develop mass production process equipment based on solution method and physical method, so as to realize the industrialization and mass production of high-efficiency single junction perovskite batteries. Second, carry out research on the preparation technology of high-efficiency laminated cells such as crystalline silicon / perovskite and perovskite / perovskite, optimize the design and preparation process of laminated structure, greatly improve the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic cells, and gradually realize the industrialized mass production capacity.



(3) Promote the grid connection performance of photovoltaic power generation



Carry out research and demonstration test on new high-efficiency and high-capacity photovoltaic grid connected technology, break through the key technology of medium voltage grid connected inverter, carry out research on coupling resonance mechanism and suppression strategy under weak current network conditions, optimal adaptive virtual synchronization technology combining active power reserve and energy storage unit, optimal design of high-power density medium voltage power generation module and empirical test technology of system integration, and develop AC direct mounted medium voltage grid connected inverter. Break through the bottleneck of large-scale photovoltaic high-efficiency and stable DC collection technology, carry out research on high-power and high-efficiency DC boost converter topology, self-regulation control technology, intelligent series / parallel control of multiple DC converters and intelligent operation control technology of multiple scenarios, and develop high-power DC converters. Carry out research on key technologies such as transient steady-state characteristics and simulation between photovoltaic power generation and power system to improve the grid connection performance of photovoltaic power generation.



(4) Promote the application of photovoltaic building integration and equal distribution technology



Promote the technological innovation of distributed photovoltaic applications such as "photovoltaic +", expand the field of distributed photovoltaic applications, and boost the high proportion development of photovoltaic power generation. Focus on technical research on photovoltaic building integration products in various forms, such as photovoltaic roofs and glass curtain walls, and comprehensively consider building structure, strength, fire protection, safety performance and other factors to meet the needs of large-scale applications. At the same time, we will carry out research on product modularization and lightweight technology, improve relevant technical standards and specifications, and promote the integration of photovoltaic buildings and the large-scale application of photovoltaic power generation and comprehensive utilization in other fields.



(5) Strengthen photovoltaic smart manufacturing and equipment localization



Build a smart photovoltaic production and manufacturing system, improve production and manufacturing capacity, carry out key centralized research, break through the localization technology of key equipment and parts, solve potential production technology bottlenecks, and ensure the capacity supply of future photovoltaic core products. First, improve the production of basic materials such as polysilicon and the intelligent level of photovoltaic cell and component manufacturing, and improve the supply capacity of intelligent photovoltaic terminal products; Second, independently research and develop core equipment for high-quality heterojunction batteries, and break through manufacturing technologies such as molecular pumps, vacuum valves, power supplies, vacuum meters and other vacuum equipment standard parts and performance testing equipment for high-quality manufacturing equipment; Third, break through the large-scale application technology of domestic power modules, controller chips, digital signal processors and other key components for photovoltaic inverter; Fourth, master the manufacturing technology of key materials such as low-temperature silver paste and sputtering target for heterojunction photovoltaic cells.

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