5月份“光伏行業(yè)景氣度”是市場高度重視的，景氣度跟蹤最好的指標(biāo)，是拿到一手的排產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，這里將最新排產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)分享給大家：

硅料環(huán)節(jié)，4月份國內(nèi)多晶硅約5.80萬噸，環(huán)比增加6.2%，6月環(huán)比增速預(yù)計進(jìn)一步提升；

硅片環(huán)節(jié)，4月末兩家一線企業(yè)開工率分別維持在75%和80%，一體化企業(yè)開工率維持在90-100%之間；

電池環(huán)節(jié)，4月電池環(huán)節(jié)大尺寸產(chǎn)能盡可能滿產(chǎn)，5月技改產(chǎn)線即新產(chǎn)能投產(chǎn)爬坡繼續(xù)；

組件環(huán)節(jié)，5月外部環(huán)節(jié)環(huán)境復(fù)雜，運(yùn)輸受阻，前10家組件企業(yè)月產(chǎn)出，有望從4月的18GW提升至19GW；

輔材環(huán)節(jié)，膠膜環(huán)節(jié)3月下旬以來連續(xù)3次漲價，五一假期后部分企業(yè)尋求再次漲價，玻璃產(chǎn)銷良好，龍頭庫存水平維持7-10天，印證組件排產(chǎn)仍然維持良好。

總體來看，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)趨勢向上很明確。

“平價時代需求無憂，供給瓶頸決定節(jié)奏”。新增裝機(jī)規(guī)模是由“硅料產(chǎn)能所決定的”，Q2-Q4硅料產(chǎn)量是逐季向上的，支撐行業(yè)持續(xù)放量。

中期視角來看，光伏是反轉(zhuǎn)，并非是反彈，但短期視角，底部需要通過反復(fù)的寬幅震蕩來夯實(shí)。

In May, "photovoltaic industry prosperity" is highly valued by the market. The best indicator to track the prosperity is to get first-hand production scheduling data. Here is the latest production scheduling data to share with you:  

In the silicon material sector, the domestic polysilicon in April was about 58,000 tons, an increase of 6.2% month-on-month, and the growth rate in June is expected to be further improved;  

In the silicon wafer segment, the operating rate of the two first-line enterprises was maintained at 75% and 80% respectively at the end of April, and the operating rate of the integrated enterprises was maintained between 90-100%.  

In the battery link, the large-size capacity of the battery link will be as full as possible in April. In May, the technical transformation production line, namely, the new capacity will be put into operation, and the climb will continue.  

In the component segment, the external segment environment in May is complicated and transportation is blocked. The monthly output of the top 10 component enterprises is expected to increase from 18GW in April to 19GW.  

The price of auxiliary materials and rubber film has increased for three times since late March. After the May Day holiday, some enterprises seek to increase the price again. The glass production and sales are good, and the inventory level of the head is maintained for 7-10 days, which confirms that the production schedule of components is still in good condition.  

Overall, the pv industry trend is clear.  

"The era of affordable demand without worry, supply bottlenecks determine the pace".  The newly installed capacity is determined by the silicon material capacity. The output of Q2-Q4 silicon material is rising quarter by quarter, supporting the continuous volume of the industry.  

In the medium term, pv is a reversal, not a rebound, but in the short term, the bottom needs to be consolidated by repeated wide oscillation.