1 限制關(guān)鍵上游元件

從2004年開始，全球就出現(xiàn)了半導(dǎo)體級硅的短缺。許多光伏產(chǎn)品制造商選擇與主要的硅片生產(chǎn)商訂立長期供應(yīng)協(xié)議。許多合同規(guī)定"照付不議"，由于組件需求與簽約的發(fā)貨量不相符，導(dǎo)致許多公司過度購買，甚至有公司違背合同，逃避付款責任，隨之而來的訴訟又耗時多年，導(dǎo)致一些太陽能設(shè)備制造商破產(chǎn)。

目前，電池產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展引發(fā)了鋰、鈷等金屬材料的供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)了劇烈波動。鋰和鈷會不會像硅片的情況一樣，出現(xiàn)恐慌性搶購、混亂供應(yīng)和定價崩潰的現(xiàn)象？

2 補貼關(guān)乎企業(yè)存亡

光伏行業(yè)的補貼通常被視為短期激勵手段，等到光伏市場健全發(fā)展，光伏企業(yè)自我維持能力增強，補貼可能逐漸退出。（盡管對某些能源行業(yè)會有永久的激勵措施）。

當這些激勵措施突然取消時（比如可再生能源發(fā)電配額制的限制），依賴補貼的企業(yè)銷售量驟降，甚至導(dǎo)致破產(chǎn)。儲能行業(yè)是否應(yīng)該快速降低成本，以便在沒有補貼措施的情況下依然保持增長？

3 產(chǎn)品成熟度有待提高

光伏行業(yè)中，早期的光伏逆變器故障率頗高，無法有效發(fā)揮功能，失去了贏得市場的關(guān)鍵。同時，安裝商部署遲緩，此類原因都讓制造商當時無法解決，產(chǎn)生了不良后果。

而儲能系統(tǒng)的控制系統(tǒng)也可能存在可靠性問題，缺乏關(guān)鍵軟件或者未達到客戶要求。早期的電池儲能市場進入者能否提供完善成熟的產(chǎn)品以獲得足夠的市場份額？

4 重視軟件應(yīng)用

專業(yè)軟件是所有儲能系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分。曾經(jīng)有一家公司推出了一款優(yōu)質(zhì)微型逆變器，但卻忽視了客戶所需的控制系統(tǒng)和軟件。缺少了這個專業(yè)軟件，就沒有完整的客戶解決方案。在開發(fā)客戶需要的必要控制系統(tǒng)和軟件之前，該公司的資金就用光了。

電池儲能系統(tǒng)制造商現(xiàn)在正面對類似的問題。雖然可將必要的硬件組件進行電氣連接并集成，但讓應(yīng)用程序、軟件和嵌入式固件一起工作還是很有難度的。儲能企業(yè)應(yīng)該投入足夠的資源來確保其軟件和硬件一樣有效。

5 考慮電價結(jié)構(gòu)變化

為縮短投資回收期，許多太陽能公司都假設(shè)電費將在未來穩(wěn)步增長。這個假設(shè)是基于最有利的歷史數(shù)據(jù)（有時是在有利的時間框架下挑選出來的），并預(yù)計在設(shè)備的使用期內(nèi)一直增長。不幸的是，其中一些數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查過于樂觀，并沒有考慮電價結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。

例如，使用時間周期的變化降低了日間太陽能發(fā)電的收益（加州的高峰期曾經(jīng)是上午10點至下午2點，現(xiàn)在變?yōu)橄挛?點至9點）。更糟糕的是，一些融資計劃增加了一個支付自動上浮計劃。由于電價變化和支付費用增加，一些客戶發(fā)現(xiàn)他們在太陽能方面的支出遠比收益高。

值得一提的是，電價結(jié)構(gòu)主要受公用事業(yè)的影響，而這些公用事業(yè)部門對光伏和儲能行業(yè)的支持力度較小。那么儲能企業(yè)是否將其價值主張建立在短期電價上？

6 重視安全問題

光伏發(fā)電具有較良好的安全記錄，是由于電池板和逆變器并沒有發(fā)生自然爆炸的趨勢。那么，電池儲能行業(yè)是否會充分考慮到電池高能量密度的危害，是否考慮推出將危害降至最低的標準和安裝示范？否則，"錢"景較好的用戶側(cè)儲能的部署可能會受到限制。

7 注重盈利性

成功的太陽能組件制造商實現(xiàn)了盈利，并與能夠提供完整系統(tǒng)的合作伙伴結(jié)盟。電池企業(yè)需要關(guān)注盈利性、質(zhì)量可靠性和保修完整性，否則他們將被迫以清算價格銷售電池。

8 不可避免的黑天鵝事件

每年都會發(fā)生原材料短缺、政策和標準變化、公司經(jīng)營狀況變化、新推出的關(guān)稅等或積極或負面的事情。從積極方面看，促進發(fā)展的因素包括稅收抵免、新技術(shù)，以及新的補貼政策。

儲能企業(yè)需要考慮各種各樣的黑天鵝事件，例如電池安全問題，產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)短缺以及貿(mào)易保護關(guān)稅問題。在艱難時期中企業(yè)的生存能力將決定該行業(yè)是否能長期健康地發(fā)展。

 Limit key upstream components  

 

Since 2004, there has been a global shortage of semiconductor-grade silicon.  Many manufacturers of photovoltaic products choose to enter into long-term supply agreements with major wafer producers.  Many contracts are "pay or leave," and many companies overbuy because the demand for components does not match the contracted shipments. Some companies even renege on contracts and evade payment obligations, and years of litigation ensue, leading some solar equipment makers to go bankrupt.  

 

At present, the rapid development of the battery industry has triggered drastic fluctuations in the supply of lithium, cobalt and other metal materials.   Will lithium and cobalt suffer from panic buying, supply chaos and pricing collapses, as happened with silicon chips?  

 

2. Subsidies are related to the survival of enterprises  

 

Subsidies in the PV industry are usually regarded as short-term incentive means. When the PV market develops healthily and the self-sustaining ability of PV enterprises is enhanced, subsidies may be gradually withdrawn.   (Although there would be permanent incentives for some energy industries).  

 

When these incentives are abruptly removed, as in the case of renewable power quotas, subsidy-dependent firms' sales plummet and even go bankrupt.  Should the energy storage industry reduce costs fast enough to grow without subsidies?  

 

3. Product maturity needs to be improved  

 

In the photovoltaic industry, the failure rate of early photovoltaic inverters is quite high, unable to effectively play the function, lost the key to win the market.   At the same time, installers were slow to deploy, which made it impossible for manufacturers to solve the problem at the time, with adverse consequences.  

 

The control systems of energy storage systems may also have reliability problems, lack key software or fail to meet customer requirements.  Can the early entrants in the battery storage market offer a proven product to gain sufficient market share?  

 

4. Pay attention to software applications  

 

Professional software is an important part of all energy storage systems.  There was once a company that introduced a good micro inverter, but neglected the control system and software the customer needed.  Without this specialized software, there is no complete customer solution.  The company ran out of money before it could develop the necessary control systems and software that its customers needed.  

 

Manufacturers of battery energy storage systems are now facing a similar problem.  While the necessary hardware components can be electrically connected and integrated, getting applications, software, and embedded firmware to work together can be challenging.  Energy storage companies should invest enough resources to ensure that their software is as effective as their hardware.  

 

5. Consider changes in electricity price structure  

 

To shorten the payback period, many solar companies are assuming that electricity bills will rise steadily in the future.  This assumption is based on the most favorable historical data (sometimes selected in favorable time frames) and is expected to grow throughout the lifetime of the device.  Unfortunately, some of these data surveys are overly optimistic and do not take into account changes in the electricity price structure.  

 

For example, changes in the time period of use have reduced the yield of daytime solar power (peak hours in California were once 10am to 2pm, but now are 3pm to 9pm).   To make matters worse, some financing plans have added an automatic payment float.  As electricity prices change and payments increase, some customers are finding they are paying far more for solar than they are getting.  

 

It is worth mentioning that the tariff structure is mainly influenced by utilities, which are less supportive of the PV and energy storage industries.  Do energy storage companies base their value proposition on short-term electricity prices?  

 

6 Pay attention to security issues  

 

Photovoltaic power generation has a relatively good safety record because the panels and inverters do not have a tendency to explode naturally.  So, will the battery energy storage industry fully consider the hazards of high battery energy density, and will it consider introducing standards and installation demonstrations to minimize the hazards?  Otherwise, the deployment of user-side energy storage with better "money" may be limited.  

 

7 Focus on profitability  

 

Successful solar panel manufacturers are profitable and align with partners who can provide complete systems.  Battery companies need to focus on profitability, quality reliability and warranty integrity, or they will be forced to sell batteries at clearing prices.  

 

8 The inevitable black swan event  

 

Every year, raw material shortages, changes in policies and standards, changes in the business conditions of companies, new tariffs, and other positive or negative things happen.   On the positive side, growth has been boosted by tax credits, new technology and new subsidies.  

 

Energy storage companies need to consider a variety of black swan events, such as battery safety issues, product supply shortages and protectionist tariffs.   The viability of companies in tough times will determine the long-term health of the industry.